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Labor Force Realignment and Jobless Recoveries
The US economy is currently experiencing its third “jobless recovery.” However, this term is an incorrect description of the employment situation. Instead, the US labor force is going through a...
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Second Quarter GDP Overview
Last week two very important and wide-ranging economic reports were released: the Beige Book and the second quarter GDP report. The Beige Book provides good background information on the economy, but...
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A Closer Look at the Second Quarter G.D.P.
On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a downward revision in the second quarter growth in the gross domestic product to 1.6 percent, from 2.4 percent. While the headline number was bad,...
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Potential for Double-Dip Recession Seems Small
Over the last few months there has been an increase in the concern and discussion over a possible double-dip recession, particularly after unemployment reports over the summer showed that the nation...
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Consumer Spending and the Economy
The U.S. economy is predominantly driven by consumer spending, which accounts for approximately 70 percent of all economic growth. But if consumers are to continue to drive the economy, they must be in...
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The 10-Word Question That Could Cost Obama the Election
The year 1980 was one in which economic forecasting models were in agreement that the economy had slumped too significantly to allow President Jimmy Carter to win re-election. Unemployment was at 7.5...
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Santorum and the Emphasis on Social Issues
Last week, I made the case for why the “electability gap” between Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney might not be all that large. But there’s a contrary point to consider, one that would not necessarily...
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In Defense of Presidential Forecasting Models
Nate Silver has criticized election forecasting models before, but his latest post is perhaps the most thorough critique. I am not an elections forecaster, but I am a political scientist and consumer...
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Has Obama’s Magic Jobs Number Changed?
Earlier this year, just before the government’s January employment report came out, I wrote that creating 150,000 jobs per month seemed to be a rough breakeven number for President Obama. If payroll...
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Economically, Obama Is No Jimmy Carter
President Obama faces re-election amid a mixed and mediocre set of economic indicators. While there has been some improvement in the economy, most major indicators still show below-average growth.The...
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Economy, and Obama, Mired in Down Data
Once we introduce our presidential forecasting model next week, which is based in part on current and projected economic data in addition to the polls, we’ll be able to estimate in real time how...
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Measuring the Effect of the Economy on Elections
The most significant change to our presidential forecast model this year is that it contains an economic index, which is used to guide forecasts along with the polls.In fact, as you may have seen since...
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What the New G.D.P. Figures Mean for the Election
Let me begin with an important reminder. Unless you have a particular interest in economic or political forecasting, the major upshot of Friday’s gross domestic product report, which estimated that the...
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Obama Has Lost Advantage Over G.O.P. on Economy
During the debate over the so-called fiscal cliff in December, public opinion surveys showed more Americans trusted President Obama than trusted Republicans in Congress when it came to handling the...
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Is the Economy Saving Obama’s Approval Ratings?
Political coverage over the last week has focused on a series of stories that reflect negatively on the executive branch — but President Obama’s approval ratings have held steady. As of Monday, Mr....
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Why We Aren’t Talking About The Economy In 2014
In 2012, two sets of journalists eagerly awaited the jobs report each month: economics and election reporters. In 2014, the economics reporters are still following the news with great interest. Yet...
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Big Business Is Getting Bigger
If it seems like big business is getting bigger, it is. Over the last two decades, the largest U.S. companies have grown faster than the economy as a whole. And it’s the biggest of big businesses that...
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About That ‘Game-Changing’ Jobs Report
If you logged on to Business Insider at 8 a.m. today, this is what you saw:Well, the game-changing jobs report has come, and the game remains decidedly unchanged. (I’m not just picking on Business...
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The U.S. Economic Recovery Now Depends On Consumers
The effects of the global economic slowdown are at last reaching American shores. With the Federal Reserve and Congress unlikely to provide much protection, U.S. consumers may be all that’s keeping the...
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The Jobs Report Is Even Better Than It Looks
The U.S. job market had its best month of the year in October, posting impressive gains after two weak months that had sparked fears of a slowdown.Employers added 271,000 jobs, the Bureau of Labor...
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